MCD (McDonalds Corp) is featured on Wallstrip today. I wanted to send this out earlier but the day took over the schedule. MCD has been trending up since early in 2003 and on 01/17/2006, MCD hit its 260 days high of 45.06. After a short correction, the price is now re-testing that last resistance, currently trading around 44.73.
On the weekly chart:
This morning, Wallstrip covers Limited Brands Inc. (LTD), parent of Victoria’s Secret, Bath & Body Works and Express Stores. We look at the weekly and daily charts and to see where we stand.
Wallstrip looks at WIT and so are we. WIT is an India based IT provider. Founded in 1945, it now has about 53,700 employees and has a slightly over 24B of market cap. WIT has been trending up pretty steadily since the bottom at 3.05 in May of 2003. Trading at a comfortable 16.83, WIT could be a long candidate.
I do not own SAM nor will I get in at this point but if I was, I would short SAM below yestersday’s low of 34.28. I know I am a day behind Wallstrip here but I guess recovering from the holidays has been harder than I thought. And please watch the Wallstrip Show on SAM and follow up with the blog.
Today Wallstrip looks at CROX, the makers of the ugly rubber/foam shoes. Like others before, CROX is obviously a fad. That does not mean the growth on the price is not real it just means to be really careful and watch for reversal on the trend. This price could be very sensitive to any form of bad news.
Today’s show on Wallstrip was on AEOS or American Eagle Outfitter. You can visit Wallstrip Conversations for more discussions. I LOVED the comment about AEOS being like Abercrombie (ANF) for poor people.
I wanted to post this so much earlier but work got in the way and I had to keep my priorities straight. So in case this is still of interest, here is what I think of the AEOS chart.
First, I own no AEOS and have no plan on getting in soon. This chart shows about a year of daily data for AEOS. We can see a nice uptrend spanning from December of 2005 to about mid-May of 2006. Than the price started trading in range for a consolidation period from mid-May to early August 2006. In early August in broke upwards again and resumed the uptrend from earlier in the year.
In the last couple of days, we have seen the growth slow down significantly and just like at the previous consolidation phase, both the OBV and the MACD curves have started trending down. I would think that AEOS should start trading range for a little bit, if it finds comfortable support and resistance levels. How it behaves in the range will determine whether it will break the range in a up or down trend.
So if I was riding the previous trend, I would be looking for exits soon. If I wanted to trade Eagle Outfitter in range, I would wait for the price to drop and find support. To trade the next trend, someone would have to wait for the consolidation to be over and decide from there if long or short is a better choice.
Like on Wallstrip, today I look at HOG, the ticker for Harley-Davidson Inc.
This should be a somewhat simple review of the chart though. Lets look at about a year of daily data.
First, I own no HOG and have no plans of getting in. The chart does reveal a nice uptrend which started mid-June. The MACD and the OBV lines confirm the trend. The growth has been careful, never pulling far away from the MA13 line or the trend line. I see no sign of real weakness in the trend at the moment and nothing points to an imminent reversal so I would consider getting long here even if it is a little late in the trend. Finding an entry would probably just consist of making sure I get in somewhere between the trend line and the MA13 line. I would hate to get in just to see the price pullback to safety.
So overall attractive for a long but watch out for reversals as this is not a recent trend.
This morning I look at MO, the ticker for Altria Group Inc., the parent company of Kraft Foods, Philip Morris International, Philip Morris USA and Philip Morris Capital Corporation. First, here is the link to today’s Wallstrip show on the same ticker.
This chart gave me a hard time. MO displays a somewhat choppy and slow growth. To help understand the shorter timeframe, here is a look at a chart covering several years of weekly data:
If you asked a two year old to draw a stockchart in school, this is more or less what it would look like. I do not own any MO and have no plans of getting in but if I did, I would probably look to get in long. You can trade MO really either way but my comfort would be on the long side.
Altria had a nice run starting mid-June which was confirmed by a golden cross in early in July. The run was abrubtly interrupted late in September with bad news on the legal front (an important element for all the big tobacco companies). The price pulled right back to the MA200 line.
Although the price started increasing again and the trend-up seems to have resumed, the MA50 line is still dipping down for a symbol like MO, I would wait for a confirmation from the moving averages before getting in.
Following Wallstrip’s daily video on NKE, here is a quick analysis of Nike’s chart. Keep in mind I own no Nike and do not plan on aquiring any. I am doing this for practice which means I am very green when it comes to analysis like this.
Nike has been in a very nice uptrend since late august. This trend included a 4.7% jump on positive earnings report on September 22nd. Looking at a year and a half of daily data, we see NKE break through two prior resistance levels, around 84.5 and around 87.5. The next step for Nike is the 91.5 prior high from December of 2005.
At the moment, the volume is declining and the MACD histogram has turned, showing less and less support for the trend. As a result, the price has pulled back towards the trendline and the 13 days MA line.
At this turning point, I would not get invovled with NKE. I would wait for a confirmation of movement in either direction. The trend could resume increasing the price away from the MA line, which would make Nike attractive for a long position and would more than likely take the price through the 91.5 resistance. Or the price could break downwards through the trendline and make the instrument attractive for a short. In case of down movement, the price would probably look for support around the prior resistance level, around 87.5.
I rarely (read never) write about a symbol just like that but this week, following the Wallstrip show, I have done a little digging around on the symbols covered on the show. So for Thursday October 19th, I looked at ADBE and decided to post on it.
At the risk of embarassing myself but because I need to practice, I am posting my ADBE commentary (solely based on the charts) before I read the other blogs and head over to Wallstrip Conversations to see everyone’s opinion. I own no ADBE and do not plan on buying any.
Although there is not enough indication of a reversal to sell short, I would not get into a long ADBE position at this point by fear of it being oversold at the moment. Although the price is trending up, the volument has started declining showing less and less support for the trend. It has basicaly been a consolidation since the 10% gap up on positive earnings news on 9/15/06. I would not be surprised if broke the sideways action downwards soon to find a decent support level. I would expect to see, first, a pullback to the lower channel or around 36.50. Once the price dips below that 36.50 level, it should start a downtrend.
